The 12-day gamble: How the Israel-Iran war unfolded

Most did not know if it would happen, or when, but they knew that Iran was marching slowly toward a nuclear weapon. Strikes on Iran had been discussed in the Jewish state for two decades. However, many factors had prevented Israel from going forward.

The F-15 has a range of some 5,600 km, depending on its configuration. The F-35 has a range of some 2,000 km.. Israel has refuelers that can help extend these ranges, but the refuelers are aging tankers that Israel has been seeking to replace.

Israel used more than 200 aircraft in its initial strike on Iran on June 13. It launched about 330 munitions at more than 100 targets in the first waves of the strike. Among the targets were key Iranian commanders, such as the chief of staff of Iran’s military, Mohammad Bagheri. In addition, Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed.

As Israel sought to eliminate Iran’s key military figures, it also went after Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran has half a dozen key nuclear facilities that have become well-known over the years. These include the nuclear enrichment site at Natanz, which is south of Tehran. In addition, Iran built Fordow, a second enrichment site, deep into a mountain, also south of Tehran. Further south are the research reactors at Arak and Isfahan. There is also a nuclear power plant at Bushehr.

Not all the nuclear facilities are important to the weapons program, nor are they all of the same relevance. Arak, for instance, included a heavy reactor site and could produce plutonium at one point. However, as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, some of the sites were filled with cement. Bushehr is situated on the coast in southern Iran and dates back to the 1970s. Russia has played a key role at this site.

Unlike Arak and Bushehr, the Fordow facility was much more concerning because it was built deep into a mountain and was considered a secret site where Iran conducted clandestine activity.

Isfahan, by contrast, has many sites, such as the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, and it has historical connections to Chinese-supplied technology. Another site south of Tehran at Parchin is also suspected of being connected to the nuclear program.

The challenge that Israel faced in any strike on Iran’s nuclear program was trying to figure out which parts to target and how to conduct multiple strikes on numerous sites. In the past, when Israel acted to stop regional countries and their nuclear programs, it only had to strike one site. Iraq, for instance, had a site at Osirak. Syria also had only one site that was key to the program.

Iran has been increasingly enriching uranium over the past several years. Under the 2015 deal, enrichment was supposed to be kept to a very low level. However, after the US left the deal in 2018, Iran chose to increase enrichment as a way to put pressure on the West. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the “Iran nuclear deal,” was signed by China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, the US, the UK, and the EU.

As such, the deal had several countries that were pro-Iran. Russia and Iran are now strategic partners. China and Iran recently signed a 25-year cooperation deal. France has often been more keen on working with Iran. Germany under Angela Merkel was also willing to appease Iran. However, Berlin has shifted gears in recent years. Iran gambled on the fact that Russia and China would back it, and that European countries would not back any strikes on its program.

Iran’s enrichment of uranium and stockpiling dozens of kilograms of the material enriched to more than 60% was not the only concern Israel had about the program.

To make a nuclear bomb, you also have to assemble the bomb itself and test it. Then you need to have a way to deliver the weapon. In the last decade, Iran has increased the capabilities of its solid- and liquid-fueled missile program. The missiles ranged thousands of kilometers, and Iran built hundreds of them.

In addition, Iran practiced using the missiles, targeting US forces in Iraq in 2020, targeting Kurdish dissidents, and launching missiles at Syria and Pakistan. Iran created several families of missiles, modeled on missiles Iran had acquired from abroad, from places like Russia and China.

Over time, the missile program became larger, and the missiles had extended ranges and more precision. Iran also invested in a space program, launching satellites into outer space. This provided Iran with launch vehicles and other technologies that could help with its nuclear program.

Israel watched all this come together over the past decades. Fears about the Iranian nuclear program date back to the 1990s. Israel would have found it harder to stop the program at that time. The program was back in the spotlight after 9/11 and the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq after 2003.

However, the Bush administration’s exaggerations about the Iraqi threat led to many people being skeptical of calls to invade Iran or change its regime due to the nuclear program. In this context, the Obama administration sought to go for a deal that would postpone Iran’s nuclear drive, which took shape between 2009 and 2015.

Israel sat and watched all this from the sidelines. While Obama administration officials such as John Kerry wanted to empower Iran, Israel was concerned that the region was being handed to Tehran.

Israel began acquiring new 5th-generation F-35 warplanes, and it also developed better air defenses with US support. The Arrow program, which can intercept ballistic missiles, dates back to the 1980s. However, it came to fruition recently, and Arrow 2 and 3 became operational in the recent war, which began with the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023.

As such, by 2025, Israel could go after the nuclear program and also intercept Iran’s retaliatory attacks. However, if Israel had waited too long, Iran might have had all the components for a weapon. If Iran made a deal with the new Trump administration, it might also have preserved its program.

A window of opportunity emerged. Iran’s proxies had been depleted in the wake of the Oct. 7 massacre. At great cost, Israel was able to weaken Hamas and also impair Hezbollah. The Lebanese terrorist group agreed to a ceasefire in November 2024. With US President Donald Trump in office, Israel’s leadership believed it could act against Iran. Iran also lost out in Syria when the Assad regime fell in December 2024. This meant that the road was now open to Iran.

The road was open because the new government in Damascus opposes Iran. Iraq is a weak state and can’t stop Israel’s efforts against Iran, even though Iraq has pro-Iranian militias. The Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq also fears Iran’s power and is likely pleased to see the regime weakened. That means Israel felt it could act.

Israel’s initial sorties were effective against parts of the nuclear program and key officials in Tehran. In addition, Iranian nuclear scientists were targeted. Iran fired back, killing more than 24 Israelis in several days. It also wounded up to 3,000 people in 12 days of war and caused 10,000 Israelis to be displaced, as Iranian missiles destroyed neighborhoods.

Around 50 missiles impacted Israel of the 500 that were launched. Israel continued daily strikes on Iran, destroying its air defenses and going after other Iranian regime elements.

On June 22, the US joined the war with an attack on three nuclear sites, including using massive munitions on Fordow. This was supposed to have destroyed key parts of the nuclear program. It is likely that many parts remain and that Iran can rebuild its ballistic missiles. The question now is whether Iran will change its tune and stop trying to move toward a nuclear weapon. Iran is weakened, but its regime has not collapsed. Israel’s 12-day war was a gamble, and it was made possible by a unique set of circumstances. Much remains to be seen if it was the game changer that some people think it was.