While attention has focused on Iran and Lebanon, the situation in Gaza and the question of Hamas’s demilitarization have been pushed to the sidelines, even as the second phase of the Gaza peace plan has centered on disarmament, technocratic governance, and reconstruction.
In recent weeks, Nickolay Mladenov, director-general of the Board of Peace, and other senior officials have been engaged in intensive negotiations over Hamas’s disarmament and the continuation of the Trump administration’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza.
Two sources told The Jerusalem Post this week that Hamas has not agreed to the plan and that significant gaps remain, although talks are ongoing amid broader debate over the future of Hamas’s weapons and the structure of postwar Gaza.
In a conversation with the Post, Dr. Bishara Bahbah, a prominent Palestinian-American scholar, former mediator in the hostage deal talks, and board member of the Gaza Soup Kitchen, discussed the chances of Hamas accepting the plan as international actors continue to examine how Gaza could be stabilized after the war.
According to Bahbah, who maintains regular contact with various stakeholders in the region, the situation on the ground is defined by a near-total lack of trust.
Hamas seeks guarantees before disarmament
Bahbah said Hamas leaders have indicated a willingness to hand over heavy equipment and, eventually, smaller arms, provided that what he described as their “paramount fears” are addressed.
“One [Hamas leader] told me: ‘We are not only willing to hand over our weapons, but we can destroy those weapons in front of the world,’” Bahbah said.
However, the path to such a symbolic step remains blocked by a “chicken-and-egg” dilemma. Hamas is demanding an Israeli withdrawal and the entry of an international stabilization force before disarming, while Israel is demanding demilitarization before any withdrawal.
“Hamas needs guarantees that the Israelis won’t come after them individually, that they won’t be targeted and assassinated,” Bahbah said.
He added that Hamas currently views the existing guarantors – the US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey – as insufficient to prevent future Israeli operations against its members.
“For an agreement to hold, the issue of amnesty must be addressed,” he said.
Dispute over Israeli control in Gaza
Bahbah said another major sticking point is the percentage of territory Israel currently controls in the Gaza Strip. He pointed to data suggesting that the area under Israeli control has expanded from 51% to approximately 59%.
This expansion of the “yellow line,” he argued, has created a situation in which many Palestinians are unaware that Israel has claimed additional territory, leading to further clashes and a deeper erosion of trust.
Bahbah also described the humanitarian situation in Gaza, saying that while the food crisis has eased in some areas, economic hardship remains severe.
“I don’t get calls from people saying they are starving,” Bahbah said, citing the 14 soup kitchens his organization operates seven days a week across Gaza, “but prices are high because the Israelis restrict the number of trucks. Many people cannot afford to eat chicken or beef on a regular basis.”
Beyond the issue of food, Bahbah cited reports that between 8,000 and 10,000 people remain buried under the rubble.
“There is one tractor in the entire Gaza Strip to excavate bodies,” he said, describing the logistical paralysis that has prevented any return to normalcy or proper sanitation.
Bahbah warned that Gaza remains “a hostage” to broader regional tensions involving Iran.
He recalled that during previous escalations, Hamas reacted angrily when he suggested that the Gaza issue should be decoupled from Iran. “We are facing a situation where they find it very hard to come to an agreement while there are hostilities with Iran,” he said.
Still, Bahbah said he remains optimistic that the current deadlock is temporary and that reaching a solution is “a question of time.”