Herzog heads north: Israel’s Baltic outreach in increasingly hostile EU - analysis

Call it Israel’s pivot to the Baltics.

Herzog’s visit to these three small EU states – together they have a combined population of 6.1 million – is more than a round of bilateral niceties. It tells a deeper story about Israel’s search for dependable allies as its standing in Western Europe deteriorates and global isolation looms.

Calls for punitive measures against Israel are growing louder in EU corridors. In that environment, courting sympathetic voices in the Baltics – where the diplomatic weather is noticeably warmer – isn’t just smart; it’s necessary.

Whether this diplomatic offensive translates into concrete diplomatic wins – blocking future EU sanctions or rallying support in international forums – remains to be seen. But in the current climate, maintenance of strong ties with friendly countries is itself important.

The EU is split on Israel, meaning that what Jerusalem needs to do is stitch together a patchwork of reliable allies that can be counted on to temper the tone of EU statements, slow punitive initiatives, or inject nuance into what often becomes a binary moral narrative.

That Herzog is heading to Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn – and not Brussels, Paris, or Madrid – is revealing. It reflects a geographic and diplomatic shift.

While countries such as France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Sweden – and, of course, anti-Israel stalwarts Ireland and Spain – are leading the charge against Israel in the EU, others – such as Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Bulgaria – have emerged as steadfast allies.

The three Baltic nations, though not always entirely aligned with Israel, are part of that friendlier cohort. In recent years, the Baltic states have quietly helped blunt particularly harsh EU moves targeting Israeli policies, whether by abstaining, voting against, or watering down proposed language.

That said, the support hasn’t been uniform. Lithuania has emerged as the strongest ally of the three, followed by Latvia, with Estonia showing more mixed behavior – at times backing Israel in Brussels and at other times backing steps Israel views as hostile, such as supporting the Netherlands’ May 2025 request to launch a review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. Lithuania opposed this review, and Latvia took a neutral position.

And in late July, all three Baltic countries signed a declaration – along with 17 other EU states and close allies such as Canada, Australia, and Japan – calling on Israel to halt the war and blaming it for Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, with barely a mention of Hamas.

That the Baltics didn’t break ranks on that issue and join together with the countries that pointedly did not sign – Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, and Romania – highlights the limits of their alignment. Still, in the broader context of Israeli-European relations, the Baltic countries remain more open to Israel’s arguments and positions than some of their Western European counterparts in the EU.

What’s at stake here is more than just goodwill. There are real, high-stakes policy implications. The EU is currently debating whether to suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement, a framework governing economic and political cooperation between Israel and the EU. Sa’ar’s visit to the Baltics in June – before going to Brussels – was part of an effort to prevent such a move, and Herzog’s visit now continues that effort.

Last month, 10 countries opposed suspending the agreement: Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Slovakia, Greece, Cyprus, and Italy. These countries, together with the Baltic states, form the diplomatic firewall inside the EU that Israel is trying to maintain, and Herzog’s visit must be seen within this light.

The thread connecting many of these nations is the shared legacy of Soviet occupation, which colors how these countries view security, sovereignty, and the threat posed by authoritarian regimes – something that creates a certain kinship with Israel that does not exist in places such as Ireland or Belgium.

The Baltics history of Soviet occupation and their present-day anxiety over Russian aggression foster a certain ideological kinship with Israel. These countries understand existential threats in a way that Western European nations, enjoying postwar peace and prosperity, often do not.

For the Baltic states, the threat is Russia. For Israel, it’s Iran and its proxies. The geography is different, but the instinct to treat threats seriously and prepare accordingly is the same.

This shared experience also impacts how these states view Israel’s security challenges. They'd better understand why Israel insists on defending itself aggressively. They’re more skeptical of international bodies that often issue one-sided condemnations. In addition, they are more skeptical of quick-fix diplomatic solutions that don’t take into account the underlying threat.

This doesn’t mean they always vote with Israel or refrain from criticism, as the Israel-Hamas War has shown. But it does mean they operate from a different starting point than many Western European countries, whose worldview is shaped more by human-rights frameworks and post-colonial narratives.

In some ways, Herzog’s trip is as much about optics as it is about policy. With the Gaza war now stretching into its 22nd month and pressure mounting over civilian casualties and humanitarian fallout, his visit sends a quiet but clear message: Not all of Europe is turning its back on Israel.

This is a message aimed at multiple audiences. For Israelis, it offers reassurance that the country still has friends abroad.

For Brussels and beyond, it’s a reminder that Israel isn’t entirely isolated. And for the US – Israel’s indispensable ally – it signals that Jerusalem is not relying solely on Washington but trying to broaden its coalition of support.

It also stands in contrast to the growing push in Western Europe for unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state.

While several EU countries have already taken that step or are set to do so in September, the Baltic countries have not. On Sunday, Estonian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Marko Mihkelson posted on X/Twitter: “The barbarity of Hamas makes it impossible for Estonia and like-minded countries to recognize Palestine.”

Israel’s cultivation of close ties with the Baltic states and other Central and Eastern European states is a pragmatic approach. As relations with traditional European powers fray, Jerusalem is pursuing other relationships and avenues. That might not produce sweeping diplomatic victories. But in an era of growing isolation, even quiet, incremental gains count for something.