The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) is withdrawing from Turkey after decades of war, according to reports on October 26. This follows a decision by the group in May to end its forty-year insurgency against Turkey.
Ankara and the US view the PKK as a terrorist group. Its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, has been jailed for decades. Ankara has also cracked down on other left-leaning Kurdish parties, accusing them of links to the PKK and “terrorism.”
The PKK’s war with Ankara has gone on for decades, with various stages. At times this included a long and bloody insurgency in which large numbers of civilians were killed and Ankara’s security forces oppressed Kurdish areas of Turkey. At other times there was talk of a possible peace and ceasefire.
For instance there was a belief that the new AKP government that came to power in the earl 2000s and the PKK might find some kind of deal. However, when the AKP felt threatened by the rise of the left-wing pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) in 2015 it began a crackdown on Kurds. In addition the rise of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units in Syria also angered Ankara.
Between 2015 and 2023 Turkey increased its attacks on the PKK. It not only fought the group in Turkey, it also expanded its operations to Syria, invading the Kurdish area of Afrin in 2018 and the Kurdish area of Serekaniya in 2019. Ankara also expanded its bases in northern Iraq.
The PKK has long had bases in the mountains of northern Iraq. This has impacted the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The Kurdistan Regional Government is led by the Kurdish KDP party which is a center-right Kurdish nationalist party. The KDP tends to have amicable relations with the AKP in Ankara. As such, the Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq oppose the PKK.
Now the PKK is saying that it will withdraw from Turkey. Turkey’s pro-government Daily Sabah says that the “terror-free Turkey initiative launched by a government ally in 2024 entered into a new phase as the PKK terrorist group declared its withdrawal from Turkey on Sunday.”
The report says there was a ceremony by the PKK and they have withdrawn. “A total of 25 terrorists left Turkey during the withdrawal, the PKK claimed, releasing a picture of the terrorists.” The report noted the PKK had also begun to disarm in July, symbolically burning some of its weapons. Ömer Çelik, spokesperson for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP Party), said the PKK’s decision was a concrete result of progress in the terror-free Turkey road map, Daily Sabah noted. He said it was “a step compliant with achieving the main goal.”
Focus will remain on the PKK in northern Iraq
Now the focus will remain on the PKK in northern Iraq. There was a press conference by the group, according to Kurdish media outlet Rudaw. At the “phe press conference, held in a remote Qandil village in the Kurdistan Region, featured 25 armed PKK fighters - including three commanders and eight women - who had just crossed from Turkey. While the group did not specify the total number withdrawing, observers estimate between 200 and 300 combatants are involved, according to Agence France Presse (AFP).”
At the same time Rudaw reported that Turkey’s “President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to host the main mediators of the latest peace process between state and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) on Thursday. The Kurdish group announced on Sunday that it has started withdrawing fighters from Turkey.”
The report noted that “The meeting - the third since the latest peace process began - was reported by a lawmaker from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) on Wednesday, without disclosing the date. However, the DEM Party announced on Sunday that the meeting will take place on Thursday.”
The decision is important for Turkey and Kurds in Turkey. However it may have affects on Syria and Iraq. In Syria the Kurdish YPG is part of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. The SDF is currently in talks with Damascus about integrating into the new security forces of Syria.
Ankara wants to see the SDF basically disbanded because it claims that the PKK is linked to the YPG and therefore controls the SDF from behind a curtain. This could mean that Turkey shifts focus to weakening PKK-linked groups in Iraq and Syria. On the other hand a peace deal could also mean Turkey feels less urgency to carry out more military raids in Iraq and Syria.
This could stabilize both Iraq and Syria and also aid the KRG in its dealing with Baghdad and Turkey. Oil is now flowing again from the KRG to Turkey, for instance. Ankara wants to see economic success in Iraq and Turkey. This could therefore encourage the SDF to integrate faster with Damascus. This could also serve as a model for disarming other groups such as the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.
Much hinges on how Ankara views the peace initiative and what the PKK decides to do in Iraq and how it continues to influence the YPG. For instance, the authorities in eastern Syria, called the DAANES, have influence from left-leaning Kurdish parties such as the PYD. From Ankara’s point of view these are groups linked to the PKK. If the PKK dissolves then these groups would be seen as more rooted in Syria. As such, Ankara would have less of an excuse to carry out airstrikes or demand they play no role in Syria’s politics. This could thus aid the DAANES and SDF. It could also aid the KDP in Iraq in the lead-up to Iraq’s elections.
Lastly, the shift could aid the PUK in Sulimaniyeh in the KRG in northern Iraq. The PUK was always considered to be closer to the PKK, or at least more accomidating. It is the second largest party in Kurdish politics in Iraq. It has often had a role in the Iraqi presidency or other offices. It is also close to Iran. Its region has often hosted Kurdish groups that oppose the Iranian regime, such as KDPI, Komala and also PJAK. PJAK is widely seen as linked to the PKK. Shifts now on the ground could mean that PJAK has to go its own way, or that the PUK will be less isolated.
The PUK recently had a kind of internal conflict in Sulimaniyah between its leader Bafel Talibani and Lahur Talibani, a former PUK official who once played a key role in its security forces. As such the PUK is also consolidating power in the lead up to Iraq’s elections, just as the PKK appears to be reducing tensions with Turkey. This could aid Kurds in Iraq by enabling many thousands of people to return home to areas in the KRG where the PKK had been fighting Turkey along the border.