Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate the war with Ukraine after this weekend's State Duma elections, Western intelligence sources told The Telegraph.
The expected escalation, the sources said, is likely to come in the form of a draft surge, accelerated mobilization, and intensified strikes against Ukraine and its allies in Europe.
With Russia suffering major casualties in its war against Ukraine, including an estimated 500,000 deaths, and facing the reality of what is ostensibly a stalemate, Putin is choosing to step things up instead of seeking peace talks mediated by the United States, intelligence sources said according to The Telegraph.
European defense officials fear a concentrated incursion of NATO territory by Russia, with CIA Director John Ratcliffe visiting the Kremlin last month for the express purpose of warning Russia against attacking any NATO members, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Russian attacks, espionage on the rise in NATO nations
European leaders have also been warning of increased "hybrid operations" by Russia within European borders in recent weeks, which include cyberattacks, sabotage, information warfare, economic coercion, as well as more blatant acts of war.
"It fits into a broader pattern of Russian hybrid operations in Europe," said Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul after a drone attack at Leipzig airport last month.
Infiltrations, bombing attempts, and other forms of attacks have become increasingly commonplace throughout Europe.
Germany's Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said last month, "We're not at war, but we are the daily target of hybrid warfare."
Last Thursday, a British man accused of providing information about factories that manufacture drones and offering to sabotage them on behalf of Russian intelligence appeared in a London court.
On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron ordered officials to outline plans to protect critical infrastructure and defense industries from sabotage, according to The Telegraph. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk also warned that Russia is planning to strike European countries that support Ukraine in a test of the NATO alliance.
Russia boosts mobilization through forced campaigns
According to Ukrainian intelligence, as cited by The Kyiv Independent, Moscow has long been prepared to call up tens of thousands of soldiers for duty but has resorted to a widely unpopular forced mobilization rather than increasing recruitment through other means.
In 2022, Russia launched a wave of “partial mobilization,” drafting at least 300,000 soldiers. Some were lured in by promises of large signing bonuses and positions away from the front lines.
Some went under questionable circumstances. Russia launched a mass recruitment initiative in prisons, sending convicts to the front lines in exchange for pardons. Hundreds of thousands of draft-age Russian men fled the country.
But the Kremlin withstood the blowback in 2022.
Now, however, as the war enters its fifth year and as Russians grow more war-weary, dissent to a mobilization order could be harder to contain.
"If Russia does trigger military mobilization, it is a sign that the regime is under tremendous strain and is politically trapped," Max Bergmann, analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told the Kyiv Independent.
He told the Ukrainian outlet that it would be a “huge gamble for Putin, a bet that could put himself and his regime at risk.”
“What we are seeing is administrative preparations to make it possible to do it, if that was the decision,” an intelligence source told The Telegraph.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainian intelligence estimates Russia was planning to draft an additional 300,000 troops, a figure that some Western intelligence officials have questioned on the grounds of a considerable demand for equipment.
Despite reservations, an intelligence source told The Telegraph, “We see lots of what we call ‘stealth’ mobilization and extra efforts to drive up contract recruitment”, which includes "forcing people awaiting trial to sign up, along with those behind on their debts or falling behind at university."
US threatens withdrawal from Europe
Multiple Western officials, including the US, recently stated that the Pentagon is considering a major withdrawal from Europe, with tens of thousands of US troops, as well as weapons systems, planes, and ships, equalling roughly one-third of all US troops on the continent, according to NBC News.
The prospect has added fuel to the fire, with European governments alarmed at the increasing possibility of conflict with Russia.
In May, US President Donald Trump ordered the withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Germany. The move is generally understood as a push by the president for NATO to "do their part," with Trump frequently stating that the US is disproportionately burdened by its share of Europe's defense funding.
However, a significant element of the president's decision comes from Europe's perceived lack of diplomatic alignment and strategic backing on significant global issues, especially in the US-Israeli war against Iran.
“Why are we spending hundreds of billions of dollars, and they’re not there for us?” Trump said. “We’ve always been there for them... I just want their loyalty. We don’t need their money. We don’t need anything. We have the most powerful military in the world by far, but I just want loyalty.”
As such, several member nations have begun diversifying away from their reliance on US weapons, technology, and defense companies, according to Reuters. A number of these nations are working to increase their military strength and defense budgets.
Germany's armed forces, for example, have changed course in recent months after a 2011 suspension of mandatory military conscription. It now aims to make the Bundeswehr Europe's strongest conventional army, with well over half a million soldiers at the ready after a significant buildup over the next several years.
While Russia has been consistent in its threats against countries supporting Ukraine, both monetarily and militarily, Britain has committed an additional 100 million pounds to Ukraine's air defenses, which include US-manufactured Patriot missiles.
Corinne Baum and Tzvi Jasper contributed to this report.