Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday is “highly significant,” since it marks the end of a long period of estrangement following the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, according to Prof. Bernard Haykel, an expert on Saudi Arabia and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
More importantly, Salman’s first visit to the US since 2018 is the culmination of years of quiet negotiations between Washington and Riyadh, he said.
“After the Khashoggi killing, he was treated like a pariah,” Haykel said in an interview with The Jerusalem Post. “This meeting signals the end of that period.”
The visit is also the product of a diplomatic effort spanning many years, one that began under the Biden administration, he said.
“This is the culmination of a long process to ratify a strategic alliance between the two countries,” he added. “There will be six or seven agreements on mutual defense, arms sales, mining and rare earths, chips and advanced technologies, investment, entertainment, health – a whole range of areas that will deepen the relationship.”
Although the White House is not formally calling the rendezvous a state visit, Haykel said it should be regarded as one.
“It’s a state visit in everything but in name – an earnest attempt to show that Saudi Arabia is one of the most important countries for the Trump administration,” he said.
Normalization if it happens - will be slow
Washington is trying to secure even a modest diplomatic opening in this regard, Haykel said.
“There might be something said on the Israeli-Palestinian issue,” he said. “If the UN Security Council resolution that mentions Palestinian statehood and the right to self-determination passes, the Saudis might reciprocate in terms of Israel.”
But if normalization happens, it will be measured and partial, Haykel said.
“Even before Gaza, MBS saw normalization as gradual,” he said. “It wouldn’t look like the UAE or Egypt models. There wouldn’t be embassies right away... no immediate official visits, no tourism. Things would start with business, technology, and defense, and build up slowly. The prince will need time to prepare his population for this.”
The Israel-Hamas war has made the domestic environment even more sensitive, Haykel said.
“Public opinion in Saudi Arabia and across the Arab and Muslim worlds was outraged by what they saw in Gaza,” he said. “The Saudis have to be seen doing something for the Palestinians.”
Still, if the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire is implemented, Haykel believes incremental steps toward Israel might begin even without a formal Israeli commitment to a Palestinian state.
“You’ll see the beginnings of progress, but not full normalization,” he said.
The Saudis want a landmark security package, Haykel said, adding that it would eventually lead to a treaty.
“They’re looking for full nuclear protection from the US, a genuine US nuclear umbrella, and guarantees against external aggression,” he said. “The Saudis are very worried about Iran, especially if the Iranian regime feels existentially threatened by another Israeli attack.”
Civilian nuclear energy would also be a topic of discussion during the meeting on Tuesday, Haykel said.
“They definitely want atomic energy,” he said. “The big question is enrichment: Will they forgo it, as the UAE did, or insist on keeping it? If they give up enrichment, they will ask for stronger American protection in return.”
Saudi Arabia’s long-running interest in stealth fighter jets is complicated, Haykel said.
“The F-35 has a kill switch that the Americans control,” he said. “The Saudis don’t want a system they can’t fully use; it’s a sovereignty issue.”
“It’s also costly, and with the Ukraine war, automated platforms have become very attractive,” he added. “So, while they’d like the F-35 in an ideal world, there are limitations and alternatives.”
The Saudis want the same treatment Israel gets: No kill switch, Haykel said, adding that even if Saudi Arabia were cleared to receive the jet, the wait process would be years.
“There’s a long line of countries ahead of them, so they could change their mind in the meantime,” he said.
The crown prince is fundamentally pragmatic, Haykel said.
“He’s a nationalist,” he said. “He’ll do what’s in the interest of his country first. This visit is part of that: locking in a long-term strategic partnership with the United States.”
If the anticipated agreements are finalized on Tuesday, Haykel said, they would amount to the most consequential advancement in US-Saudi relations in decades, potentially reshaping the regional landscape, including the Gulf, Israel, and Iran.