In recent years, “quantum” has become the new buzzword and is often listed alongside AI, hypersonics, and autonomous systems as a disruptive technology slated to reshape defense and national security.
Vendors promise unbreakable encryption, instant simulation of complex systems, and computing power that makes today’s supercomputers seem like abacuses. Governments publish roadmaps. Start-ups raise capital. Strategic competitors invest billions.
But the conversation is often clouded by hype.
Quantum is not a single technology; it is a family of technologies based on the rules of quantum mechanics (superposition, entanglement, tunneling).
Within that family, there are three distinct domains:
- Quantum computing
- Quantum communications
- Quantum sensing
Each has its own maturity level, industrial ecosystem, and impact on defense.
An understanding of these differences is not purely academic; it determines the areas in which defense organizations should invest, partner, or simply observe.
Today’s quantum technology
Despite the headlines, we do not yet have a fully scalable, fault-tolerant quantum computer. That would require millions of stable quantum bits (qubits). Currently, the leading platforms operate in the hundreds or low thousands, with significant error rates and extreme engineering constraints (cryogenic cooling near absolute zero, electromagnetic isolation, vacuum chambers).
There are three milestones the world must cross before quantum reaches operational maturity:
- Quantum advantage: In specific tasks, quantum performs better than classical computers. This is currently being achieved in narrow research problems, such as by Google and IBM, as well as in China.
- Quantum utility: This is advantageous in practical, real-world tasks. It is emerging in logistics optimizations and cryptography experiments.
- Fault-tolerant quantum computing: Millions of qubits with automated error correction are required. This milestone is presently five to 10 years away from achievement.
Most quantum innovation still revolves around experimentation and early-stage prototyping rather than production-ready systems. However, the defense implications are so significant that waiting is not an option.
The three quantum domains are:
- Quantum computing
- Quantum communications
- Quantum sensing: Navigation and intelligence without GPS
Solving the unsolvable
Quantum computers exploit superposition (a qubit can be in more than one state simultaneously) and entanglement (changes in one qubit instantly affect another, even far away). This turns quantum into an ideal engine for solving problems that overwhelm classical computing.
Key defense-relevant use cases and their impact on defense are as follows:
- Breaking today’s encryption: Quantum computers threaten standard cybersecurity (RSA, ECC) by factoring large numbers exponentially faster.
- Optimization problems such as the ‘traveling salesman’ (see example below): Optimizing flight paths, satellite tasking, UAV swarm routing, and logistics under real-world constraints.
- Simulation of advanced materials: Develop stealth coatings, lighter armor, high-energy batteries, and quantum-resistant communication components.
- Propulsion and energy research: Simulate molecular-level reactions, critical for next-generation fuels or hypersonic propulsion.
The famous example of the “traveling salesman problem” (finding the shortest path visiting multiple locations) describes everything from supply-chain logistics to squadron mission routing. Quantum computing can evaluate millions of permutations simultaneously rather than sequentially.
For defense planners, that translates into faster operational planning, better resource allocation, and reduced mission risk.
Toward unhackable networks
Quantum communication uses entanglement and quantum key distribution (QKD) to enable secure channels. The fundamental rule is:
Measuring a quantum state changes it. Which means if someone attempts to intercept or tamper with a transmission, the interference is immediately visible. This promises secure communications between command centers and inter-satellite encryption, along with the linking of unmanned sensors and autonomous platforms.
China has already demonstrated that it can launch a quantum communication satellite (Micius) and field a 4,600 km. quantum-secure ground network.
Along with creating a geopolitical race, this raises the question of whether secure military networks will belong to the first enemies who adopt quantum – or to the democracies preparing to defend against them?
Navigation and intelligence without GPS
Quantum sensing may become the first quantum breakthrough to reach the battlefield, well before computing. Quantum sensors can detect extremely small variations in gravity, magnetic fields, or time, thus enabling:
- GPS-independent navigation: Submarines navigating underwater
- Missiles maintaining precision without satellite access
- Ground forces operating in GPS-jammed environments
- Detection of stealth platforms: Stealth aircraft and submarines rely on minimizing radar/magnetic signatures.
- Quantum sensors detect disturbances in fundamental physical fields, not in the object itself.
- Space domain awareness: Better detection of orbital activity and unknown objects
In a military context, the ability to navigate without satellites is a strategic game changer.
Why quantum matters for defense
AI alone isn’t enough. We are entering a new era in which AI and quantum will reinforce one another.
Quantum accelerates AI, enabling larger, more sophisticated models. Meanwhile AI enables quantum, optimizing error correction and qubit control. AI wins when there is enough data and Quantum wins when the problem is too complex to compute.
Together, they provide defense forces with the ability to simulate battlefield scenarios at planetary scale, optimize resource allocation in real time, and break enemy cryptography while securing their own.
This is the technological equivalent of the nuclear moment.
Whoever wins quantum security wins secure communications. And whoever wins quantum computing wins information superiority.
Quantum maturity requires heavy defense funding
Let's be blunt.
Quantum development requires significant investment, such as for cryogenic facilities, advanced semiconductor fabrication, clean rooms and materials, scientific expertise, precision lasers, and ion trap systems.
This is not an app economy.
Start-ups cannot fund quantum alone. Venture capital cannot shoulder the required CAPEX. Only governments, national defense agencies, and defense primes have the long-term budget and patience.
We are already seeing a global pattern.
In the United States, the National Quantum Initiative and DoD Quantum Acceleration Program have received approximately $3 billion in initial funding. In the European Union and NATO, phase one of the Quantum Flagship Program has already raised €1 billion. In the United Kingdom, investment in National Quantum Strategy is at £2.5 billion. And in China, multiple classified programs and the Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) satellite program are estimated to have funding in excess of $15 billion.
Quantum is the new space race. If defense organizations wait until the technology is “ready,” they will be locked out of the future operating system of warfare.
Defense companies must lead, not watch
Defense companies are uniquely positioned. They work on long product lifecycles, manage classified data and secure facilities, and build mission-critical systems in which reliability matters.
In dual-use industries like space and AI, early investment has created national strategic assets. Quantum is no different.
There are three strategic moves defense organizations must make now:
- Invest in quantum-safe encryption in order to audit cryptographic assets, transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and partner with academia and cybersecurity agencies
- Launch proof-of-concepts with quantum computing providers. That involves optimization pilots, logistics modeling and the simulation of radar materials or advanced composites
- Develop on-premise secure quantum R&D environments to reduce dependency on foreign cloud platforms and protect IP and algorithmic advantage
Additionally and perhaps most importantly: Quantum talent is rare. Defense must train the workforce now, long before the technology fully matures.
Quantum is a strategic imperative
Quantum will not replace classical computing. It will complement it by solving problems we previously considered impossible. And like AI, quantum is dual-use.
It can protect encryption or break it. It can optimize logistics or disrupt adversary communications. The field requires patience, capital, multidisciplinary collaboration, and technological courage. The countries and defense organizations investing today will own tomorrow.
It is not a question of whether quantum will change defense, but of who will lead that future, and who will be forced to follow. It is time for defense organizations to step in because the winners of the next era of deterrence will not be the ones with the largest weapons but those with the deepest computation.