On September 17, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s interim president, who was briefing reporters in Damascus ahead of his trip to the United Nations General Assembly, said that the ongoing negotiations with Israel to reach a security pact could lead to results “in the coming days.”
According to the Saudi-owned newspaper Independent Arabia, citing “senior Syrian sources,” Israel and Syria were expected to sign a security agreement under the auspices of the United States on September 25.
However, that never happened.
Multiple news outlets, citing senior US officials, as well as Israeli and Syrian sources, indicated that the two sides were very close to concluding a security arrangement intended to reduce hostilities along the border and protect the Druze minority. However, issues such as Israel’s access to Sweida, precise demilitarization mechanisms, territorial buffer zones, and domestic political considerations in Syria delayed finalization.
Remaining optimistic
Officials from both Israel and Syria, as well as US mediators, remain optimistic that this is merely a postponement. Senior American figures have suggested that an agreement will be reached and signed soon.
What might come as news to some is that negotiations have been “ongoing” between Israel and Syria for months. The key Syrian participant, in addition to Sharaa himself, has been Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani.
Media reports mention Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer as Israel’s interlocutor, while US special envoy Thomas Barack has been acting as mediator. Meetings have taken place in a variety of locations, including London, Paris, and Baku. These promising contacts, not exactly secret but given little publicity, are scheduled to continue.
Describing a security pact with Israel as a “necessity” for Syria, Sharaa has said that an agreement would need to respect Syria’s airspace and territorial unity, and he seems to believe it should be monitored by the UN.
This potential deal is explicitly not being framed as normalization. Syria’s position is that with the Golan Heights issue unresolved, and certain Israeli-held positions such as Mount Hermon still outstanding, normalization with Israel is not on the table at this point.
From Damascus
However, on September 17, during a media briefing with reporters in Damascus, Sharaa said that Syria was seeking “something like” the 1974 Israel-Syria Disengagement Agreement concluded after the Yom Kippur War. It established a formal ceasefire and separated opposing forces by creating a demilitarized zone and a UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Golan Heights.
Sharaa also mentioned that, in July, a Syria-Israel deal had been “four to five days” away, but the outbreak of violence in Sweida derailed it.
On July 12, following mutual kidnappings and attacks between Druze and Beduin armed groups, the Druze-majority region of Sweida in southern Syria was engulfed in severe armed sectarian clashes. The violence involved shoot-outs, extrajudicial executions, massacres, burning of villages, and looting. Over 1,500 people were killed, hundreds of whom were Druze civilians, with at least 192,000 people displaced from the region.
Israel intervened to protect the Druze by mounting airstrikes targeting Syrian government and Beduin positions. Ceasefires were declared on July 15 and 19, but tension and periodic violence continued. Sweida remains a potent factor in efforts to end conflict in southern Syria.
Sweida roadmap
The US, which is playing a mediating role in the Syria-Israel security discussions, is also deeply involved in the agreement known as the Sweida roadmap, publicly announced on September 16 in Damascus. The negotiations leading to it were one reason for delaying the broader Israel-Syria security pact. The official signatories are Shaibani, US envoy Tom Barrack, and Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi.
Two earlier rounds of talks held in Amman in July and August set the stage for this final agreement. At a joint press conference attended by all three, the seven-point roadmap to address the crisis in Sweida province was unveiled.
Describing it as “a collective vision,” Barrack said the plan ensures displaced people can return to Sweida. Jordan’s Safadi said: “Security in southern Syria is an extension of Jordan’s security and essential for our stability. We want Syria to stabilize, recover, and rebuild after years of destruction and suffering, and to start practical steps toward a brighter future for all Syrians.”
Regional security
And indeed, the roadmap emphasizes regional security considerations, linking the security of southern Syria to that of Jordan, which also hosts Druze and Beduin communities.
The agreement aims to restore normal life in Sweida, including opening key roads, restoring services, allowing aid, launching an internal reconciliation process, and prosecuting inciters of the violence.
Heavy weapons have reportedly been withdrawn from southern Syria under the plan, addressing Israeli security concerns as well. A joint Syrian-Jordanian-American mechanism is expected to oversee implementation, including ceasefires and security sector reform.
Druze to protect roads
The Syrian government will allow local Druze security forces to operate in Sweida to protect roads and ensure the movement of people and commerce. The violence had led to large displacements, with over 160,000 people affected, including Druze and Beduin internally displaced. The roadmap intends to plan for their return.
Whereas the Sweida roadmap stresses equal citizenship and an incremental trust-building approach, in north-eastern Syria, the situation is nearly the opposite. Despite Sharaa’s best efforts – including a formally signed agreement in March – the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are resisting full reintegration in the new Syria. They reject assimilation and are demanding genuine decentralization in any new constitution.
Efforts at incorporating Kurdish civil and military bodies into the Syrian national forces have stalled, and, as transitional authorities in Damascus have been prioritizing unitary control, thousands have been demonstrating for greater autonomy.
Turkey ready to use force
This runs counter to Turkey’s interests. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is broadly pro-Sharaa as long as he continues to prioritize Syria’s territorial unity and does not allow the SDF or other Kurdish groups to gain autonomy outside Damascus’s authority. Turkey retains a readiness to use force should Kurdish federalization or stalling on integration become apparent.
Sweida and the Kurdish region are not the only problems facing Sharaa as he tries to steer Syria toward unity and inclusivity. There are entrenched regional administrations, each with independent military, civil, and judicial structures, such as Rankous in the Qalamoun region and Al-Tal on the outskirts of Damascus.
Many observers believe that failure to reach an inclusive and mutually respectful arrangement with all Syrian constituencies could threaten both the transitional process and national unity, risking a return to internal conflict.
So, while the Sweida stabilization includes reconciliation and reintegration, Sharaa’s broader strategy is constrained by Kurdish demands for a degree of autonomy at odds with his concept of a unified nation, Turkey’s rooted opposition to any such development, and the challenge of coordinating the fragmented power centers that abound in Syria.
If Sharaa and his government can achieve genuine pluralism and decentralization in a post-Assad Syria, not only a security pact but a normalization deal with Israel could well follow.
The writer, a former senior civil servant, is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com.