If US President Donald Trump ultimately sells F-35 aircraft to Turkey, Israeli defense officials believe that Ankara’s top minds could work around American limits placed on the aircraft, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
When the UAE and the Saudis dropped their interest in purchasing the dominant F-35 fifth-generation aircraft from Washington, this was partly because the US planned to impose limits on the aircraft to ensure they were not misused.
Whereas both countries may have dropped their pursuit of these aircraft due to technical limitations, the Post understands that Israeli defense officials worry that Turkey’s military technological capabilities and aircraft experience could allow it to overcome them.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has phrased Israeli objections to Turkey acquiring the aircraft in general terms, as an upset to the balance of power in the region.
But Israeli defense officials and other experts are more specific.
F-35 sale could limit Israel's ability to pre-emptively strike regional dangers
While to date, Turkey has not taken direct military action against Israel, and such a scenario is still unlikely, the widely publicized fact is that no country has successfully detected the F-35 aircraft.
If Ankara did decide to attack Israel, it could theoretically do so with no warning, and without a clear Israeli defense response, including against strategic political or military targets (and the same applies to any other country operating the aircraft, for that matter, according to long-standing reports).
In another nightmare scenario, Turkey could provide Syria, or even Iran, with the capacity to track F-35s, ending or severely limiting Israel’s ability to launch preemptive strikes against rising dangers, such as ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons.
Iran might be a stretch, as Ankara and Tehran can also be rivals, but it is not impossible if Turkey views Israel as too ascendant in regional air supremacy. Sharing such capabilities with Syria would seem a more obvious move, given that Turkey helped install the new Syrian ruler, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in power in late 2024.
What is stopping Trump from selling the F-35s to Turkey, if anything?
Israeli, Greek, and Cypriot objections, while not irrelevant, certainly would not be enough to stop it on their own.
But there is a real block.
US legislation prohibits the government from selling F-35s to countries that operate Russian air defense systems, such as Turkey's S-400, to prevent them from learning to counter the F-35 at close range.
In other words, if Turkey could fly its own F-35s while its Russian S-400 system learned to track them, Ankara could pass this information on not only regionally, in a way that would harm Israel, but also to Russia, which could harm America’s ability to project power.
Until now, the assumption has been that the S-400 can shoot down American F-15s and F-16s, but not the F-35. All of this could change if Turkey possessed both systems.
Israeli defense officials worry that Turkey can circumvent US legislation by placing the S-400 systems in storage and claiming they are not operational.
This may not be enough to convince the US Congress in an absolute sense, but it could help Trump squeak the deal through by using a loophole and the veil of not violating the law on the books.
Turkey could send the Russian S-400 systems to Syria
A key question Israeli defense officials are now asking is how hard Congress can fight Trump on a national security issue that is mostly in the US president’s purview, in his dominance of foreign affairs.
This is especially true regarding legislation that Trump himself pushed through during his first term under different circumstances but which he has now soured on.
In addition, Turkey could also send the S-400 anti-aircraft defense systems to Syria.
This could be the worst of both worlds for Israel, because technically, Turkey would not be violating US law, but Syria could track the F-35s, which would harm Israeli freedom of action in Syria, and Damascus could also share the information with Turkey.
Yet another scenario is that Russia could take back the S-400 systems entirely, which would temporarily alleviate the issue, but the systems could always be sent back later, and Turkey could not necessarily be forced to return the aircraft.
This is partly what concerns Israeli defense officials, in that once the F-35 is handed over to Turkey, an unpredictable future could steer the issue in currently unforeseen negative directions.
These are the most extreme scenarios.
There are also less extreme approaches to the issue.
Some defense officials analyze the issue from a less nightmare-focused perspective.
They ask as an opening question: Why is Turkey of interest, and what about it could eventually constitute a threat? They note that there is always a general balance of power conflict in the Middle East between Arabs and non-Arabs.
Since October 7, Israel has weakened the power of the Shi’ite axis, such that they ask: Who will enter the former position of the Shi’ites?
Next, they say there are three candidate countries which have the capabilities and the motivation to fill that vacuum: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
The officials, without jumping to conclusions, recommend that Americans consider what Turkey will look like in a broader strategic sense over the long term, rather than just the current financial value of the military deals.
It is complicated for the US to think this way, they acknowledge, because Turkey is historically a member of NATO, such that the US, on a bipartisan basis, does not view it as a threat.
But these officials also stress that it would not take too much for Turkey to start posing a threat to Israel in Syria and also potentially in Gaza.
This would mean that giving them the F-35 could influence a wide array of calculations anytime Israel and Turkey might have a confrontation over a seemingly smaller issue in Syria or Gaza.
Last, it has been widely reported that, to date, the US has never let Israel into the F-22 fighter program and has excluded Jerusalem from the latest sixth-generation F-47 fighter program, which may be tested in 2028 and fully operational in 2030.
If the US were to allow Israel to join the F-47 fighter program, this could take some significant stress off any F-35 deal with Turkey.
However, the Post understands that Israeli sources remain less than optimistic about this happening, even as discussion of selling the F-35 to Turkey has reached a critical point.